Friday, October 16, 2009

Iowa vs. Wisconsin Pre-Game

No. 11/12 Iowa (6-0, 2-0) vs. Wisconsin (5-1, 2-1)
Kickoff: 11:00 a.m., Camp Randall Stadium
TV/Radio: ESPN, AM 800 KXIC
Line: Iowa, +3 (espn.com)

What to watch for
The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with 19 takeaways. Iowa is yet to lose a turnover battle this season which has been a big part of the defense's success.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi has thrown an interception (or more) in every game so far this season, but still ranks second in the conference in touchdown passes (10) and fourth in yards (1359). Stanzi's quarterback rating is a solid 126.4.

Iowa's running backs (Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher) have yet to put the ball on the turf in 2009.

Key Stats
The Badgers are third overall in the Big Ten in total yardage, averaging 422.3 yards per contest. But the 'Sconis (pronounced scaaaa-knees) are a reflection of their head coach, ex-Hawkeye Bret Bielema. They favor their power running game, led by a dump truck of a running back John Clay and a massive offensive line. Through six games the Badgers lead the Big Ten with 200.7 rushing yards per game and Clay has done most of the damage rushing for 641 yards (106.8 ypg) and seven touchdowns on 132 carries (4.9 ypc). However, Clay was held in check most of last week against the Buckeyes, rushing for just 59 yards on 20 carries.

Iowa counters with a stout rushing defense. The Hawks have allowed 134.3 rushing yards per game, which is a bit misleading considering they gave up 190 to Iowa State on Sept. 12 and another 195 to Michigan last week. But against an Arizona team who came in as one of the top five rushing offense's in the nation, Iowa held the Wildcats and shifty running back Nic Grigsby to his lowest total of the season (75 yards) before sustaining an injury against Oregon State on Sept. 26. Iowa is also second in the conference in rushing touchdowns allowed (three) after ending a streak of 33 quarters without surrendering a touchdown on the ground against Michigan last week.

Prediction
Despite 'Sconi's physical style of play, their inexperience was exposed last week against Ohio State. Wisconsin junior quarterback Scott Tolzien threw two pick-sixes to the Buckeyes defense. And the Badgers also allowed a 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. If the 'Sconis want to pull of this upset, they will have to play a flawless game because errors on special teams and on offense against Iowa will bury the Badgers.

It should be a close, hard-hitting contest, but I see this as the game where Stanzi is finally mistake-free and that is what makes the difference in this one.

Iowa 27, Wisconsin 21

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